Report
Ireland Real Estate Market Outlook 2025
January 23, 2025 12 Minute Read
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Introduction
Despite global economic uncertainties and geopolitical instability, Ireland’s domestic economy will continue to grow in 2025, given its healthy financial profile, robust employment levels and continued real wage growth.
A reliance on corporation tax receipts and foreign direct investment from the U.S. will continue to come under the spotlight however, particularly under the protectionist policies of the Trump administration.
In contrast to global trends, Ireland has re-elected a broadly centrist government, which will seek to address key issues influencing real estate, from rent regulation to taxation and planning. This will provide more opportunities for investors and developers, particularly in the residential sector this year.
European real estate valuations have largely stabilised in response to the ECB’s recent more accommodative monetary policy, and despite some stubborn inflation in the Euro area and a selloff in the bond markets in early 2025, base interest rates will continue to tick down over the next 12 months, but perhaps more slowly than anticipated. This will be supportive of transactional activity and development across sectors.
Irish investment spend was 40% below the long-term average in 2024 but will improve in 2025. The sale of the Blanchardstown Shopping Centre and One & Two North Dock has shown that institutional capital will be active where pricing is attractive, and some new capital is already emerging this year with a focus on residential assets.
Expert insights on real estate trends
Discover the prospects for the real estate market in 2025 from our industry experts.
Jennet Siebrits shares her perspective on the market outlook for the upcoming year
Nick Knight explores emerging investment trends and opportunities
Michael McGill discusses the prospects and changes in the living sector
The earlier than expected general election helped bring a level of certainty to the country, albeit the long wait for the Autumn Budget was unnerving. Some of the measures introduced in the budget will be challenging for businesses, particularly the additional National Insurance Contributions effective from April 2025. Still, there is much to be positive about. The Invest 2035 strategy sets out a strong vision, highlighting growth areas including the life sciences, finance, and tech sectors and recognises the need for infrastructure improvements to underpin the growth agenda.
The revision to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) will start to feed through in 2025, with a return to mandatory housing targets and the introduction of the 'grey belt'. With it comes increased pressure for Local Authorities to review the Green Belt if they are unable to meet housing targets on brownfield land.
Of course, planning changes alone won’t solve the ongoing housing crisis. But it may help provide a well-needed fillip to house builders, which, coupled with a more stable economic backdrop and lower interest rates, will help drive momentum in the housing market. The proposals for a new raft of New Towns may help increase home delivery, but we are unlikely to see spades in the ground in 2025 (or 2026).
It is becoming increasingly evident that the commercial real estate market reached a trough in 2024, and we expect the embryonic signs of a turning point to gather more strength in 2025. This, along with lower interest rates and lower costs of debt, will stimulate a pick up in investment in 2025 of around 15%.
2025 will see the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump’s return to office will likely bring with it some fiscal stimulus and a tax policy favourable for real estate investors and occupiers in the U.S. Still, the possibility of import tariffs may not be so positive.
The sustainability agenda remains a notable consideration for investors, developers, and occupiers. As does Artificial Intelligence (AI). Although it may take some time for its applications to be truly revolutionary, its impact on efficiency should continue to feed through quickly.
On the surface, 2025 may seem like a benign year, with steadier economic growth and a relatively small pick-up in CRE. But the underlying picture and nuances will be far more exciting.
Explore an overview of our outlook on different real estate asset classes below and access the complete report for our detailed insights.
Economic Outlook
Ireland’s two traditionally dominant centrist parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, captured 86 of 174 Dáil seats in the November 2024 Irish general election. Both parties, along with a selection of independents, have formed a coalition and are entering government in January. The confirmation of a centrist government for a new five-year term will be positive for real estate activity across sectors, particularly as it provides at least some certainty and continuity around regulation and policy.
Capital Markets
Living
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Industrial & Logistics
Retail
Sustainability
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Healthcare
Cork
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